Posted: Apr 10, 2014 12:01 PM
Updated: Apr 10, 2014 12:04 PM
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND - The 2014 hurricane season is predicted to be less active than usual. Meteorologists from across the United States are at South Padre Island to discuss the season's expectations.
"We're forecasting a below average hurricane season, a total of nine named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane. A typical season is about 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes," explained Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist for the Tropical Meteorology Project.
He said a key indicator in the forecast is the El Niño pattern, which is expected to be moderate to strong over the next several months. With that pattern in place, the water warms up causing winds to be stronger which tears apart tropical systems. This results in a less active hurricane season.
The probability a tropical system will make landfall near the Rio Grande Valley fell from last year's 30 percent chance to 19 percent.
Klotzbach added it's still early in the season, and they will continue to make adjustments, if necessary, as we approach the start of hurricane season on June 1.
CHANNEL 5 NEWS Chief Meteorologist Tim Smith added, "Remember it only takes one. If there was one storm that hits you, it was an active season for you. ... You prepare just as if it's going to be the busiest season ever and just in case that one comes to where you are."