NOAA Changing Hurricane Forecast
WESLACO – The National Oceanic and Atomspheric Administration is updating their hurricane forecast. They are predicting a more active season.
The NOAA generally updates their hurricane forecast as the season progresses. Their first report is made before the hurricane season starts.
The reason for this is to adapt to changes in weather patterns.
They are predicting 14 to 19 named storms, which is increased from the May prediction of 11 to 17.
The other change in the prediction is an estimate of two to five major hurricanes, rather than the two to four from the May forecast. The prediction for five to nine hurricanes remains unchanged.
The reason for this more active forecast is linked to the current conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.
“Almost all these colors (on the weather map) all the yellows and oranges are warmer than normal water in the Atlantic. So very warm water, also a change in the wind sheer and also the chance that El Nino may not form at all later this year, are all factors that could drive up the number of tropical storms and hurricanes,” said CHANNEL 5 NEWS meteorologist, Alan Shoemaker.
NOAA said this season has the potential to be extremely active and could be the most active since 2010.
In just the first nine weeks of this hurricane season, there have been six named storms. This is double the number of storms that would typically form by early August.