This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune. The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues. 

It’s not just Talarico. New Texas poll shows Dems statistically tied in key statewide races

by Stephen Simpson, The Texas Tribune
October 14, 2026

New results from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project released Wednesday are the first from a major poll showing key down-ballot Democratic candidates for statewide races holding razor-thin leads against Republicans.

The survey shows state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate race, still leads Republican opponent Attorney General Ken Paxton, 50% to 47%. Talarico currently leads Latinos and women, as well as urban and suburban residents, while Paxton leads among men and rural residents, according to results.

Gov. Greg Abbott’s bid for reelection faces unprecedented pressure from Austin-area Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who holds a 1-point lead over the incumbent, effectively a tie. The UT/Texas Politics Project poll shows Hinojosa has strong support among Latinos, women and urban voters but lags behind in the suburbs, rural areas and among men.

The poll also shows Democratic Rep. Vikki Goodwin currently leading four-term incumbent Dan Patrick for lieutenant governor, 49% to 46%. Other statewide races are separated by 1, with state Sen. Nathan Johnson, D-Dallas, leading fellow state Sen. Mays Middleton, R- Galveston, for attorney general; Republican Don Huffines ahead of state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt, D-Austin, for Comptroller of Public Accounts; and Democrat Jon Rosenthal leading Republican Bo French for Railroad Commissioner.

While estimates for the survey's non-generic trial ballots, drawn from an overall sample of 1,200 registered voters across Texas, found these Democratic candidates with narrow leads it found the generic Republican candidate for Congress and the Texas Legislature ahead of the generic Democratic candidate among registered voters.

The UT/Texas Politics Project poll credits higher Democratic voter enthusiasm for the perceived competitiveness of this year's statewide elections, with 72% of Democrats reporting they are either “extremely” or “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms, 10 percentage points higher than Republican voters who were polled.

However, a Marist poll released Tuesday that surveyed 1,196 registered voters shows Republicans gaining ground in races where other polls found them trailing for weeks. That survey found only 2 points separating Talarico and Paxton among likely Texas voters at 47% to 45% in favor of the Democrat. In the Texas governor’s race, Abbott leads Hinojosa 49% to 45%, a 7-point swing in the incumbent's favor since September.

Both polls show President Donald Trump's approval rating in Texas is declining. The Marist survey shows 54% of likely voters disapprove of Trump, and the UT/Texas Politics Project survey shows voters disapprove of his performance for the third poll in a row.

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.