It’s Election Day. Here’s what to watch as Texas wraps its most competitive electoral season in years.
This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune. 
The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.
It’s Election Day. Here’s what to watch as Texas wraps its most competitive electoral season in years.
The Republican agriculture commissioner is campaigning with the Democrat running to replace him. The GOP Senate nominee has spent the entire race behind in the polls. The comptroller is warning in all caps: "WE ARE LOSING TEXAS."
Such is the state of an unusual midterm in Texas, which ends Tuesday as voters head to the polls. Democrats have forced the GOP to compete not only for U.S. Senate but also for races down the ballot that Republicans rarely have to defend, from lieutenant governor to railroad commissioner.
The marquee contest is between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. A Talarico win would give Democrats their first U.S. Senate victory in Texas since 1988 and their first statewide win of any kind since 1994.
Also at stake is control of the governor's mansion, as Gov. Greg Abbott looks to fend off a late-surging state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. And for the first time in years, Texas has a major slate of competitive U.S. House and state legislative races.
More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, in person or by mail, the highest midterm early-turnout rate on record in modern-day Texas.
Here are seven things we're watching on Election Day.
The U.S. Senate race everyone is talking about
After months of campaigning, wall-to-wall political ads on every screen and barbs over everything from backroom dealing to barbecue, Texas’ U.S. Senate race will finally be decided Tuesday night.
The contest has been contentious from the start, with competitive primaries in both parties and one longtime incumbent — Republican Sen. John Cornyn — already ousted.
Paxton, the three-term attorney general, has spent much of the general election warning GOP base voters that a Democratic win would bring high taxes, socialism and a teardown of Texas’ conservative values — likening the moment to key historical turning points with the fate of the republic at stake.
Talarico, running in a state that Donald Trump carried by 14 points just two years ago, has been urging voters of all parties to join him in taking on what he describes as a corrupt political system that rewards billionaires and makes everyday life more expensive for working Texans.
Polling has shown a close race, with Talarico leading but well within the margin of error.
A Talarico win would put Democrats in a strong position to win control of the Senate, to say nothing of the shockwaves it would send through Texas and national politics. A Paxton victory, after his primary win over Cornyn, would demonstrate the strength of the party’s MAGA-aligned wing and the durability of the GOP brand in Texas, even in a difficult national environment and with a candidate carrying ethical and legal baggage.
The eyes of the state, the nation and of Elon Musk — the world’s wealthiest man, and by far the biggest donor in the race — will be on the Texas Senate race.
Talarico has proven a prolific fundraiser, hauling in more than $146 million this cycle, dwarfing Paxton. But that gap has been more than erased by a massive Republican rescue operation, financed primarily by Musk, to overwhelm the airwaves with over $280 million in Republican ad spending during the general election.
Will the Republican money machine and Texas’ longtime GOP lean prevail? Or will a combination of Talarico’s appeal, Paxton’s liabilities and high gas and grocery prices end Democrats’ decade-long drought?
Either way, come January, Texas will have a new U.S. senator for the first time in 14 years, and it will have spent more than a year at the center of the American political universe.
— Gabby Birenbaum
A record fourth term or the first Latina governor?
Voters will decide Tuesday whether to elect Gov. Greg Abbott to a record fourth term or elevate Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who would become the state’s first Latina governor and the first Democrat to serve in the governor’s mansion since Ann Richards fell to George W. Bush in 1994.
For much of the year the race seemed to be a lock for Abbott, whose incumbency, fundraising strength and party infrastructure made him a formidable opponent. But Hinojosa surged in the final months of the election and emerged as the incumbent governor’s most competitive opponent yet.
Hinojosa’s sudden momentum arrived after she spent months struggling to escape the shadow of the highly competitive U.S. Senate race at the top of the ticket. She seized on rising anger among rural voters over the influx of data centers, in addition to broader voter discontent over high costs and the state of public education. Heading into the fall, a handful of public polls showed her ahead of Abbott, a first for the governor across his four runs.
The race has been marked by a lopsided spending gap, with Abbott outspending Hinojosa eight-to-one since she entered the race a year ago. Much of Abbott’s campaign cash has gone toward television ads touting his record and affordability agenda. Other spots have attacked Hinojosa for her votes in the Texas House on taxes and culture war issues, amplifying Abbott’s framing of the election as a choice between “common sense and crazy.”
Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest man who almost single-handedly bankrolled Republicans’ $270 million rescue mission for Paxton, came in as Abbott’s biggest donor this cycle, kicking in $5.5 million.
Hinojosa, meanwhile, has focused her campaign on a populist promise to “save Texas public schools” and “put money in your pocket,” while arguing the state has been overrun by billionaire and corporate influence.
If reelected, Abbott would be on track to surpass his predecessor, Rick Perry, as the state’s longest-serving chief executive. Perry served just over 14 years, a mark Abbott would hit about midway through his term.
— Kayla Guo
The South Texas congressional battleground
Texas Republicans gave themselves what they believed would be a significant edge after redrawing congressional districts in their favor last year with the express goal of picking up five more seats in the U.S. House this election — seats that Trump would have won by at least 10 points in 2024 under their new borders.
But heading into Tuesday, Republican victories in those districts are largely uncertain — especially in the majority-Hispanic districts of South Texas, where the political winds appear to be gusting left. That shift has the chance to shatter the GOP’s hopes to capitalize on the gains they’d made among Latino voters last election, which helped fuel Trump’s victory in Texas.
Among the seats to watch is the one held by Rep. Henry Cuellar, who stayed loyal to his party despite a federal pardon from Trump for his 2024 indictment for bribery and money laundering. He has been a stalwart defender of his two-decade long office in the 28th Congressional District which Republicans targeted earlier this year as an opportunity to flip.
His fellow moderate Democrat, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, has a more tenuous election ahead of him against former federal prosecutor and National Guardsman Eric Flores in the 34th. And Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is looking to hold the 15th in the face of a meteoric campaign waged by Tejano musician Bobby Pulido.
Close battles are also being fought for open races in the region. The state's sole vacant seat is the 23rd Congressional District, which was previously held by former Rep. Tony Gonzales. Gonzales resigned in April after it was reported he had an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. That race is between gun rights YouTuber and Republican nominee Brandon Herrera and San Antonio attorney and former teacher Katy Padilla Stout, the Democratic nominee.
Rep. Greg Casar, who currently represents the 35th district, chose to run in a heavily Democratic Austin district after the gerrymander. His move leaves open a seat pursued by two first-time candidates: former Bexar County sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia, a Democrat, and Carlos De La Cruz, a Republican and the brother of Monica De La Cruz.
Several other races across the state have the potential to go either way this election. But both parties are watching South Texas closely to see the results’ impact on who will walk away with a majority in the U.S. House.
— Will Hammann
Will the GOP’s rural firewall hold?
Usually, rural voters are a lock for Republicans, a reliable chunk of votes that offsets Democrats’ gains in the cities and suburbs. But that was before data centers, massive power lines and Flock cameras started popping up across Texas’ wide open spaces, sparking a rural revolt that has both parties fighting for this sliver of the electorate.
Some lifelong Republicans have announced their intention to switch sides, hoping to send a message to their party about taking rural voters for granted, but it will take a lot of defectors to make a difference. Rural voters turn out and vote Republican at such high rates that 10% of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s rural voters would have had to switch to his opponent, Beto O’Rourke, to have changed the outcome in the nailbiter 2018 election.
To win over rural voters, Democrats are eschewing the party brand and sidestepping culture war issues in favor of populist rhetoric about taking on the Big Tech billionaires reshaping the state. Republican candidates, meanwhile, are trying to remind small-town voters about their shared values, and contrast that with stances Democrats have taken on gender, abortion and immigration.
The degree to which rural voters are up for grabs is relatively unprecedented in modern politics. There’s been a consistent urban-rural divide since the mid-1990s, and no Texas Democrat has cracked 25% of the rural vote since the Obama years. Some polls have Talarico and Hinojosa running 10+ points ahead of that record. Will that last through election night?
— Eleanor Klibanoff
Will young voters show up?
Young people were among the key groups that helped boost Republicans two years ago across the country and in Texas. Heading into Tuesday, it is anyone’s guess how young people between ages 18 and 29 will vote — though there are signs the bloc is animated and remains important.
Texas is home to one of the youngest registered voter populations in the country. In 2024, President Donald Trump performed as well as Democratic nominee Kamala Harris among voters in their 20s and late teens in Texas — a feat, considering Democrats have historically performed better with the bloc, according to exit polling.
Republicans tried to maintain the momentum. Nowhere was that more clear than in the wake of the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk last September, when top Texas GOP leaders tried to tap into energy that was motivating youth in the state to embrace conservative politics centered on their Christian faith. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick donated $1 million to Turning Point USA, the group Kirk founded, to open chapters of the group — which seeks to organize young conservatives — on every Texas college and high school campus. Abbott later announced a partnership with TPUSA to open chapters in high schools.
The young voter bloc, in Texas and the country, has long struggled to turn political enthusiasm into consistent attendance at the polls.. There are signs that may by changing this year.
Nearly 1 million Texans ages 18 to 29 voted early, making up 13% of all votes cast — a slight uptick from their 12% share at the same point in 2018, according to GOP data guru Derek Ryan. About one-quarter of registered voters in that age bracket have cast ballots, up from a 14% turnout rate in 2022, the most recent midterm year.
Those numbers may have been driven by a surge in young Hispanic Texans voting for the first time. Hispanic voters made up nearly half of Texas’ early voting bloc that turned out this year but not in 2024, according to Democratic data strategist Tom Bonier. Of that new Hispanic cohort, nearly two in five were under the age of 30; and of the new Gen Z Hispanic voters, 64% were women, per Bonier.
Some candidates have been making direct appeals to young people. Talarico has run an online campaign that brought social media influencers into the fold and relied on his following, which was massive before he even entered the race last year.
In the final days of the campaign, GOP railroad commissioner nominee Bo French courted young working-class men in particular. “A week ago I said I'd be your champion, young men. Now I need you to show up,” French wrote in one recent post. He also released an ad that features animated Lego characters.
Is any of this hitting? We will find out.
– Alejandro Serrano
Can Republicans rebound from the early vote?
After an active 12-day early voting period, one thing is evident from the numbers: Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage heading into Election Day.
According to GOP data consultant Derek Ryan, Democrats finished the final day of early voting with a 26,000-vote edge, based on which primary voters most recently participated in. Republicans had advantages of 945,000 in 2024 and 565,000 in 2022. Trump went on to win by 1.6 million votes two years ago, while Abbott prevailed by 883,000 votes in 2022.
Although turnout is high across the board, it is most pronounced in counties that went blue in the last two presidential elections. The early vote turnout in blue and swing counties is 89% of what it was in 2024 and 135% of what it was in the 2022 midterms. In red counties, those numbers drop to 77% compared to 2024 and 125% compared to 2022.
Put another way, early voting in many of the largest counties was not far behind a presidential year’s turnout while it lagged in more rural counties.
Turnout matched 2024 numbers in the Rio Grande Valley and other border counties, including Webb County, home to Laredo.
Similarly, South Asian voters either matched or exceeded their 2024 early voting turnout, per modeling, a noteworthy trend given Republicans’ focus on the “Islamification of Texas.” The Texas GOP named “Don’t Sharia our Texas” as a legislative priority during its convention this summer.
To compare models, one Democratic-created algorithm modeled the early vote electorate at 50.5% Democratic and 49.5% Republican, while GOP data consultant Ross Hunt’s modeled breakdown of the generic ballot came out to 53.3% Democratic and 46.7% Republican.
Democrats grew their margins in urban counties “particularly precipitously,” Hunt added.
On social media, Ross said Democrats pushed their margin to 6 points because of GOP defections, “more than you would think,” based on a survey his firm ran in late September, and because of independents skewing to the left.
— Renzo Downey
Down-ballot statewides
In a sign of how unusual this election cycle is, several Democratic statewide candidates are polling neck-and-neck with their Republican opponents. The fate of these down-ballot candidates will be largely dictated by the top of the ticket. But by forcing Republicans to run hard for their seats, the Democrats have already reshaped these races.
Patrick, the powerful Senate power broker for over a decade, is facing a real challenge from Austin state Rep. Vikki Goodwin. She has less name recognition and less money than Patrick, but Goodwin has secured a foothold by fomenting outrage over Patrick’s politically divisive efforts to ban THC.
In the attorney general’s race, Democrat Nathan Johnson has hammered his opponent, Mayes Middleton, over his allegiance to Trump. Middleton, who poured almost $20 million of his own oil and gas wealth into winning the primary, has been relatively quiet during the general election.
The agriculture commissioner race has also grown contentious after incumbent Sid Miller lost his primary to honey magnate Nate Sheets. Miller has campaigned with Democrat Clayton Tucker, amplifying the progressive rancher’s positions on data centers and rural growth, and said he would not be voting for Sheets.
One down-ballot race that’s getting an unwelcome amount of attention, for Republicans, at least, is for railroad commissioner. Bo French, the former Tarrant County GOP chair, unseated incumbent Jim Wright in the primary, and now faces Democrat state Rep. Jon Rosenthal in a bid to join the three-person commission that regulates oil and gas in Texas. Trump has withheld an endorsement for Sheets or French, touting his support for all other GOP candidates in social media posts.
French drew national attention to the race in September when he posted racist commentary about a group of South Asian students celebrating the University of Texas’ win over Ohio State. While some Republicans condemned French, even going so far as to say they would not vote for him, the party largely stood by him. Rosenthal has tried to capitalize on the attention French drew to the race, but he remains an underfunded underdog for an agency most voters know little about.
— Eleanor Klibanoff
This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.
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