This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.  The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues. 

Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Gov. Greg Abbott in early vote returns in key counties

by Kayla Guo, The Texas Tribune
November 3, 2026

Democrat Gina Hinojosa took a lead over Gov. Greg Abbott in the surprisingly competitive gubernatorial race, according to early returns that put Democrats within reach of reclaiming the governor’s mansion for the first time this century.

As Election Day ballots were tallied Tuesday night, Hinojosa built up an early margin with strong performances in important North Texas suburbs and at least two of the major urban metros that had reported. Those returns largely exclude Election Day votes.

More than 7.7 million Texans — or 40.5% of registered voters — cast their ballots early through the state’s 12-day early voting period, a record midterm early-turnout rate in modern Texas history.

James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, had also established a decisive lead over Republican Ken Paxton in early returns, as had every other statewide Democratic candidate on the ticket.

Hinojosa, an Austin state lawmaker and former school board president, is challenging Abbott for governor as he seeks a record fourth term. She would become the state’s first Latina governor should she win, while an Abbott victory would set him up to become Texas’ longest-serving chief executive.

A Democrat has not won statewide in Texas since 1994. The last Democrat to occupy the governor’s mansion was Ann Richards, who was defeated that year by George W. Bush.

Though Abbott defeated all three of his previous gubernatorial opponents by double-digit percentage points, Hinojosa — buoyed by a competitive U.S. Senate race, discontent over data centers and a broadly favorable political atmosphere for Democrats — emerged late in the cycle as his toughest competitor yet, with a handful of public polls putting the governor behind for the first time across his four runs. 

Boosted by roughly $119 million in ad spending, Abbott framed the election as a choice between “common sense and crazy.” He touted his record of growing Texas’ economy, cutting property taxes and funding public education. He ran on an affordability agenda that promised to further reduce property taxes.

And, perhaps most of all, especially in the final months of the election, Abbott cast Hinojosa as a high-tax liberal whose policies would smash Texas’ economy and transform this conservative haven into a bastion of California-style progressive politics. In ads and on the campaign trail, Abbott repeatedly bashed her as a “radical” who “supports boys in girls’ sports,” and backed an income tax and higher property taxes based on her legislative record. 

“These aren’t average Democrats — these are the furthest left radical Democrats we see in the United States of America,” Abbott said as early voting kicked off. “We will not allow those radical leftist Democrats to destroy our economy, to make our communities unsafe and to put Texas a step backward. There’s too much on the line.”

Hinojosa’s longshot bid, meanwhile, rested on a populist promise to revitalize public schools and to purge state government of undue corporate and billionaire influence. If elected, Hinojosa would have become Texas’ first Latina governor and the first Democrat to occupy the governor’s mansion this century. The last Democratic chief executive was Ann Richards, who lost re-election to George W. Bush in 1994.

She seized on Abbott’s longevity — calling him “entrenched” — and blamed him for various issues roiling the state, including the explosive development of data centers in rural parts of the state and what she described as a Big Tech takeover of Texas land, resources and schools.

She also avoided the culture wars and campaigned on a “post-partisan” policy agenda that included returning $1,500 to each Texas household out of the state savings account, ending the school voucher program, vetoing gerrymandered electoral maps and forcing lawmakers to regulate data centers.

“People are tired of fighting the culture wars,” Hinojosa said at The Texas Tribune Festival in September. “The future feels very scary for so many Texans, and so it’s just created this opportunity for us to come together. And I do feel like it is a watershed moment, almost a post-partisan moment, where 99% of us are in the same boat.”

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.