After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night
This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune. 
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After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night
Texas voters living along the Mexico border led the turnout surge that powered Democrats to historic victories, a Texas Tribune analysis found.
Border counties, stretching from El Paso to Cameron, saw an 8% jump in overall voter turnout compared to 2022 — the biggest increase among regions statewide.
And those voters overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates.
Tuesday's Democratic victory abruptly ended the temporary grip Republicans had on the state’s southern tip. Those largely Hispanic counties — a longtime Democratic stronghold in red Texas — caught the nation’s attention when, in 2024, they supported President Donald Trump and his promise to close the southern border and invoke a mass deportation program.
Trump’s 2024 victory inspired Texas Republicans to redraw political boundaries in South Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley region, to flip Democratic-controlled seats. That plan backfired. Republicans lost two seats, including Congressional Districts 15, which includes McAllen, and 23, which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso.
State Rep. James Talarico, who led the Democrats at the top of the ticket Tuesday, won nine of the counties Trump won along the border two years ago.
And Talarico’s margin across Texas’ 16 border counties was about 4 points better than Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 margin. Talarico won by nearly 45 points in border counties, while O’Rourke led by more than about 40 points in the 2018 election, according to unofficial election results data from the Associated Press.
Large gains among counties in the Rio Grande Valley and Laredo area helped contribute to this shift. Zapata County — south of Laredo — which O’Rourke won by nearly 26 points, saw the largest shift among border counties, swinging more than 15 points toward Democrats.
Jeronimo Cortina, a political scientist at the University of Houston, said Democrats lost the region to Trump in part because the party “did not invest significantly in the communities to create a solid base.” Democrats turned it around on Tuesday by paying closer attention to the southern tip.
He said the shift could also be attributed to Trump’s failure to deliver on the economic promises he campaigned on.
“The promises that President Trump made were very clear, right? Gas prices are going to go low, grocery prices are going to go low, and that did not materialize,” he said.
And in South Texas, “immigration is the economy,” said Álvaro Corral, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley.
“Housing projects came to a grinding halt because of ICE raids — that has a dollars and cents downstream effect in the local economy,” he said. “Local business leaders in the Rio Grande Valley who are not known for being bleeding heart liberals were coming out quite forcefully and putting their voice out there to say that something's got to change.”
“People are hurting, and that is very, very, very powerful,” he added.
He added that the growth in Texas’ Latino voting is made up of younger people and women, who tend to vote blue.
Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist who worked with Talarico, Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa and Pulido, credited a number of things for the turnout. For one, he said it is clear Hispanics — from MAGA moms mad about education to men who drive trucks that guzzle diesel — are discontent at the party in power for the current state of the economy and corruption that makes it worse. He said immigration agents have also overstepped their authority.
But just as important, Rocha said, was the investment into courting Latino voters. He gave credit to Minority Leader of the U.S House Hakeem Jeffries, the New York Democrat, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for pouring money into races in Texas. Rocha said his firm alone spent big on Spanish advertising, notable given that Republicans spent little this cycle on the same.
He said the money went to Spanish TV commercials to reach older folks, streaming ads to target younger folks, and then followed up on everyone with mailers. Beyond that, social media was flooded with influencers.
Corral said the candidate's coordination in visiting the border strengthened their support. Talarico not only visited the Valley multiple times, but he also often stood alongside Congressional District 15 winner Bobby Pulido, a popular and familiar figure in the community.
“Bobby Pulido sort of introduced James Talarico to South Texas voters and to the Rio Grande Valley,” Corral said.
Pulido’s endeavor to unseat Monica De La Cruz, the first Republican to represent that South Texas district, was seen throughout the year as a competitive race. But the numbers show clear support for the Tejano musician: He finished the night with a 25 percentage point lead.
As for Hinojosa, who beat Gov. Greg Abbott for the governor’s mansion, Corral said her roots in Brownsville gave her the upper hand from the start.
“That chance to have a first Latina governor and to have that Latina governor be from the Rio Grande Valley, obviously, was probably a sort of emotional and local pride sort of element to the race.”
Cortina said the social issues that also gave Trump an edge in 2024, such as LGBT+ rights, did not resonate this year.
“It's the economy, the economy, the economy, and quality of life,” he said. “Your personal values do not change, right? Whatever you believe, you believe. But once again, you cannot pay the bills based on beliefs, based on values. You cannot fill up your tank right based on values.”
LUPE Votes, the political arm of community nonprofit La Union Del Pueblo Entero, were on a mission to get infrequent or new voters in the Rio Grande Valley out to the polls.
In August, the group launched a canvassing campaign that ran through Election Day. During that time, they knocked on 90,000 doors and reached more than 100,000 people, said Michael Mireles, director for civic engagement for LUPE Votes.
“South Texas won because of our members in the colonias, because of the people who had never been given an opportunity to talk about politics, or who were never asked ‘What are the issues that impact you?’” he said. “Those were the people that made a difference in this election and made the outcome what it is today.”
Short time to deliver
As the dust settles from the tectonic political earthquake that toppled Republicans out of power in Texas overnight, political strategists say Tuesday’s election results leave no doubt the Latino vote in Texas is independent and one of the state’s most important swings.
Longtime GOP operative Wayne Hamilton, who ran Abbott’s first gubernatorial campaign, has spent years recruiting Hispanic candidates to run for local government positions in South Texas. For just as long, he has been evangelizing that Hispanic voters are up for grabs for either party.
Wednesday afternoon, Hamilton sounded vindicated. What’s more, he noted that some of the candidates his group Project Red TX had boosted won their elections, flipping some seats along the border despite the bloodbath suffered by Republicans up and down the ballot. Among them are a Justice of the Peace in Frio County and a District Clerk in Del Rio who, as far as Hamilton could tell, will be the first Republicans to ever hold those offices.
“My experience is that the Hispanic community has a mind of their own,” he said. “If you have two Latinos in a room, you’ve got five opinions — pretty independent group.”
The Valley’s swing to blue is significant, Cortina said, but it’s going to take a lot of work for the Democrats’ support in South Texas to hold.
“Democrats right now, especially in the state of Texas, are at the starting line,” he said. “They have a very short-term window to deliver.”
Disclosure: The University of Texas - Rio Grande Valley and University of Houston have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune within the past five years. The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in our journalism. Find a complete list of them and more information about our financial and disclosure policies here.
This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.
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