One in five Latino Trump voters in Texas would not repeat vote if given redo, poll finds
One in five Latino Texans who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 would not support him again if given a redo, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
In a survey of 500 registered Latino voters, the Latino civil rights organization UnidosUS found that two-thirds disapprove of Trump’s job performance, the same share that said they did not feel Trump and congressional Republicans were “focusing enough on improving the economy for people like you.” Nearly half of voters cited cost of living and inflation as a top issue shaping their view of Trump — more than any other issue, with immigration enforcement in cities also ranking high in the list.
“The economic priorities dominate,” said Clarissa Martínez De Castro, vice president of the group’s Latino Vote Initiative. “Some people call it ‘buyer’s remorse,’ other people ‘do over.’”
The poll is the latest to cast doubt on the durability of Latino support for Trump and the Republican Party in a state he won by a wide margin two years ago, in large part due to Latino voters who swung to the right. Trump captured an estimated 55% of the voter bloc, which set a new high-water mark for Texas Republicans who had spent years losing Hispanic voters by double digits.
Democrats have found hope they might win a statewide election for the first time since 1994 thanks to other surveys that have also measured Latino voters’ eroding support for the GOP. Additionally, a Democratic union machinist rode a surge in Latino support to flip a Texas Senate seat in a January special election for a district that Trump carried by more than 17 points two years ago.
Pollsters conducted the UnidosUS survey between April 27 and May 14 over the phone, text invites and online panels in English and Spanish, depending on the participant’s preference. Roughly 40% of the state’s population is Hispanic.
Of the 500 voters surveyed, 300 live across five of the state’s top battleground congressional districts, each of which are Hispanic-majority seats: the 15th and 23rd Districts, which Democrats hope to flip from GOP control, and the Democratic-controlled 28th, 34th and 35th Districts, which Republicans are targeting after redrawing their boundaries to make it easier for a GOP candidate to win.
In those districts, a slight majority of respondents — 54% — said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress; 27% said they’d support the Republican, while the rest were undecided, according to the poll.
U.S. Senate Democratic nominee James Talarico led his recently cemented GOP opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, by a more than 2-to-1 margin among Latino voters, as did Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa over Gov. Greg Abbott.
Election after election, Texas Democrats won the Latino vote by wide margins. Former President Barack Obama and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton each won Latino voters by nearly 30 points in 2008 and 2016, respectively, according to exit polls. But the domination began to erode by 2020, when former President Joe Biden won the bloc by 17 points — foreshadowing Trump’s striking gains four years later.
Even in the years with stronger support from Latino Texans, Obama and Clinton lost the state overall by more than 800,000 votes.
The UnidosUS poll found Talarico and Hinojosa leading among Latino voters by the same margins as those former Democratic standard-bearers, with 21% to 25% of voters undecided.
That’s why, De Castro said, Democrats should not “rest on their laurels” just yet.
“The reality is that Democrats are still underperforming the levels of support that they would need from Latinos to be successful,” she said.
As in prior years, the pollsters noted, each of the voters’ priority issues for elected officials to address — from cost of living to healthcare to housing — “are all driven by pocketbook concerns.” But immigration reform followed just behind, and four in five Latino voters — including 69% of Republicans — said they would support “creating an amnesty period” during which undocumented immigrants who have lived in the country “for many years and otherwise follow our laws” could apply for legal status. The issue has been deemed a nonstarter by a significant share of Republicans in Congress.
Additionally, 77% of Latino voters voiced opposition to the idea of a federal ban on letting undocumented children attend public schools. The idea has taken rootamong some Texas Republicans, signaling a potential battle over the issue when the Legislature reconvenes in January.
This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.![]()