McALLEN — One morning in mid-November, Mario Guerrero, the executive director of the South Texas Builders Association, was checking a group chat when a video of federal agents detaining people from a construction site popped up.

He watched the video of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents detaining workers who were pouring cement in front of a home in an idyllic neighborhood here in the Rio Grande Valley.

For nearly a year, Guerrero had seen similar videos or read news reports of arrests and raids. This was the last straw.

The raids and the specter of more to come have struck fear in construction workers, causing many to stay home. ICE agents have arrested more than 9,100 people in South Texas — nearly one-fifth of all such arrests in the entire state since Trump took office, according to government data provided by ICE in response to a FOIA request to the Deportation Data Project and analyzed by the Texas Tribune.

Without enough workers, construction has slowed, sending a ripple effect throughout the economy. Economists suggest that this will drive housing costs up — even as Texas officials focus on bringing such costs down.

Later that afternoon, Guerrero posted a video of his own on the association’s Facebook page in which he addressed the construction community, local elected officials and the public.

"I would like to start off this video by saying that I am an American citizen, and it's crazy that we're living in times where you actually have to state that,” Guerrero began.

He said he believed law enforcement should do their jobs, but was disturbed by the fact that ICE agents were operating without arrest warrants — which they are legally allowed to do — and detaining people who have proper authorization.

“It's what's happening across the Rio Grande Valley at construction sites,” he said.

He ended the video by calling on local leaders to attend a meeting later that month to discuss the ongoing challenges facing the construction industry because of ICE raids.

“It’s time that we have our leaders show up,” he said. “Our people are hurting, our businesses are hurting. There’s no labor.”

Guerrero’s candor about how the construction industry is suffering as a result of ICE raids grabbed the attention of the Rio Grande Valley community. For months, residents openly assumed that the construction industry was being negatively impacted, but had yet to hear anyone in the industry officially acknowledge it. Data from the Federal Reserve of Dallas shows a 5% drop in construction jobs during the third quarter of this year, the single largest dip in jobs in the region.

ICE did not respond to an interview request or list of questions The Texas Tribune sent.

With his comments, Guerrero opened the door for others to finally speak openly about it, catching the attention of state and federal officials.

“Construction can’t continue”

When the day of the meeting arrived, more than 380 people filled the room at the Brookhaven Event Center in Pharr. It was packed with people who worked in nearly every facet of construction and development, including concrete, lumber, real estate, and lending. A handful of elected officials also attended.

During the roughly hour and a half that they met, those industry representatives took turns to discuss the hits their businesses had taken because workers were too frightened that ICE would show up at construction sites. They also warned of how the larger Rio Grande Valley economy would suffer if the ICE arrests didn’t stop.

"Business is down significantly,” Ronnie Cavazos, board presidentof the South Texas Builders Association, told the crowd. “If we continue on this trajectory, we will see a lot of businesses fail."

Isaac Smith, a co-owner of Matt’s Building Materials, said his family’s stores were struggling to get lumber out the door.

"If job sites are getting raided, at any level, the construction can’t continue,” Smith told the Tribune. “It's not a fun situation to be in.”

Smith said his sales had seen a rate of decline in the double digits since the ICE operations began. He’s also seen an increase in late payments from customers with a credit line from the store.

“That takes an adverse effect on our cash flow and how we operate, how we manage expenses, and money coming in, and money going out,” Smith said.

“We wish it would stop”

During the Nov. 17 meeting, Cavazos took a moment to bring attention to the people directly affected by the raids — the workers.

"Let me tell you about immigrants in this country. Nobody believes in the American dream more than them,” Cavazos said in his remarks.” The immigrant should be celebrated, treated with dignity and allowed to work and provide for their families.”

Every few days, videos of ICE operations gain widespread attention. Jesus, a 42-year-old construction worker who asked his last name not be used because he and his wife are undocumented, said he and his fellow workers keep a lookout for ICE when they’re out on a job — if they go to work.

Jesus has drastically decreased the number of jobs he takes, just enough to ensure his family can survive.

“We hardly work anymore; we’re afraid to go out into the street,” he said. “We don’t look for work because we’re scared.”

He estimates he brings in about 60% less than he used to before the raids began. He, his wife and their four children try to survive off the diminished salary that he brings in.

“We wish it would stop, but we don’t control these things,” Jesus said. “The government does.”

Unintended consequences

With fewer construction workers available to build homes, delays in building could result in a shortage of homes and cause home prices to rise.

It would not be the first time that changes in immigration policy could be at least a partial factor in housing unaffordability.

Researchers found that under an Obama-era immigration enforcement program, deportations led to a shortage of labor in the construction sector and, therefore, fewer new homes.

The program, called Secure Communities, was launched during the George W. Bush administration but was expanded under former President Barack Obama, leading to more than 300,000 deportations from 2008 to 2013.

Nationwide, there was a 2% to 3% decrease in labor in the construction industry and a 5.7% decrease in new constructions during that time. The new constructions that were getting built went up in price by 4.4%, according to Dayin Zhang, one of the researchers and an assistant professor at the Wisconsin School of Business.

“It is difficult to forecast the future, as many economic conditions have changed over the past two decades," Zhang said. “However, given the current pace of deportations, it is reasonable to expect that shortages in construction labor and housing will become more severe than the period of Secure Communities.”

How that might translate to today will likely depend on the total number of people deported under the Trump administration. The administration claims more than 600,000 have been deported since Trump took office in January, though immigration advocates have questioned the accuracy of their numbers.

Thrust into the spotlight

Since the meeting, Guerrero has received an unusual amount of attention for someone who usually stays off social media.

His video grabbed the attention of U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Laredo Democrat, who asked to meet. The meeting, held at a seafood restaurant, went well, Guerrero said, with Cuellar expressing a desire to bring awareness to the issue at the congressional level.

On Dec. 10, Guerrero attended a private meeting with Gov. Greg Abbott when the governor swung through the Valley to champion his proposals to cut property taxes.

At the end of the meeting, Guerrero introduced himself to Abbott, but the governor appeared to already know who he was. During their brief exchange, Guerrero handed him a letter and invited him to another builders' meeting in January.

Abbott’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

He’s gotten some negative feedback, too. People have left messages on social media accusing him of wanting to exploit cheap labor. He strongly pushed back against that accusation, adding that entry-level laborers are paid the equivalent of $15 per hour.

People on social media also commented that he should be prosecuted or investigated, and told him he shouldn't be calling out local elected officials.

Guerrero isn’t backing down.

For the January meeting, he has invited more elected officials at all levels of government. He hopes these ongoing public gatherings will bring greater awareness to their plight.

“People maybe don't understand the magnitude of what's happening,” Guererror said. “But that's where we have to come together as human beings, and we need to be a little cognizant about the real situation that we're facing.”

Reporting in the Rio Grande Valley is supported in part by the Methodist Healthcare Ministries of South Texas, Inc.

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This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.